Key points • Starting point: non-mitigation SRES scenarios (SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) • Decisions taken by IPCC about development of scenarios for AR5 • Parallel approach with fast-track RCPs • RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways • NB: Socio-economic aspects covered in Ramon Pichs talk 2 al. 6 c) in 2011–2050 are smaller than those of the SRES scenarios forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The CM3 is just one of many climate models that are analyzed to make predictions about our changing climate. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), published back in the year 2000, four alternative scenario families were developed, characterized by socioeconomic storylines that assumed different directions of future development. Scientists attempt to create scenarios of future human activity that represent plausible future greenhouse emissions pathways. For the next IPCC Assessment Report (due in 2021-2022), scientists and modelers are using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which link specific policy decisions with projected emissions outcomes. Benefits of using RCPs They are referred to as pathways to emphasize that they are not definitive, but are instead internally consistent time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with multiple socioeconomic scenarios. (2010), and IPCC (2008)). For the Fifth Assessment Report, a new set of scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was developed. What are the major differences between the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)? The climate is affected by many elements, including ocean temperatures, clouds, rainfall and vegetation growth. The largest growth and cumulative release of CO2 is associated with the RCAP 8.5 fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, while the smallest is associated with the RCP 2.6 scenario. The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. Cambridge University Press, UK. rcp 6 In this scenario, emissions double by 2060 and then dramatically fall but remain well above current levels. Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. The RCP scenarios superseded the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000 and were based on similar socio-economic models. The readings this week include a Commentary from the journal Nature about the issue of RCPs and the path forward with SSPs. The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m 2 and 6.0 W / m 2, respectively. Figure 6.5: RCP Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios. This future is … The John A. Dutton e-Education Institute is the learning design unit of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at The Pennsylvania State University. WGIII As pointed out by Moss et al. SOURCE: van Vuuren et. Let us now directly compare the various SRES scenarios both in terms of their annual rates of carbon emissions, measured in gigatons (Gt) of carbon (1Gt = 1012 tons), and the resulting trajectories of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. (2008, 2010). Earth System Models project a global increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios by the end of the 21st century, with a slow recovery after mid-century under RCP2.6. RCP 2.6. The RCP scenarios superseded the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000 and were based on similar socio-economic models. 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